US Probes 2.9M Teslas Over Red-Light Violations: NHTSA Investigates Full Self-Driving Software
The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has launched a preliminary investigation into nearly 2.9 million Tesla vehicles equipped with the company’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, focusing on reports of traffic violations including running red lights and driving the wrong way. Announced on October 9, 2025, the probe stems from incidents where FSD-enabled vehicles allegedly failed to comply with traffic signals and lane directions, raising concerns about the safety of Tesla’s advanced driver-assistance system.
Affecting models from 2016 to 2025, including Model S, 3, X, Y, and Cybertruck, this scrutiny could lead to recalls or software updates, impacting Tesla’s reputation amid its push for autonomous driving dominance. As NHTSA reviews over 20 complaints, the investigation highlights ongoing regulatory challenges for self-driving tech in a market projected to reach $10 trillion by 2030. This comprehensive analysis explores the probe’s details, its implications, historical context, economic effects, future outlook, and more, providing a full perspective on this critical development in the EV and autonomy era.
Why the NHTSA Probe into 2.9M Teslas Matters
The investigation underscores the high stakes of Tesla’s FSD beta, a Level 2 system marketed as “Full Self-Driving” despite requiring human supervision, which has drawn criticism for misleading consumers. With FSD priced at $8,000-$12,000, the probe could erode trust, slow adoption, and invite lawsuits, especially as Tesla aims for unsupervised autonomy by 2026. For the broader autonomous vehicle industry, valued at $50 billion in 2025, this highlights regulatory hurdles from NHTSA and FMVSS standards, potentially delaying robotaxi rollouts. Economically, a recall affecting 2.9 million vehicles—over half Tesla’s 5.3 million fleet—could cost $1-2 billion in fixes and lost sales. Globally, it intensifies scrutiny on Waymo and Cruise, while pressuring Tesla’s $1 trillion valuation amid stock volatility.
Key Details of the NHTSA Investigation
- Vehicles Affected: 2.88 million Tesla models (2016-2025: S, 3, X, Y, Cybertruck) with FSD software.
- Reported Issues: Running red lights, wrong-way driving, improper lane changes.
- Complaints: Over 20 incidents flagged to NHTSA.
- Scope: Preliminary probe; may escalate to engineering analysis or recall.
- Timeline: Opened October 9, 2025; ongoing review.
Latest Events Surrounding the Tesla Probe
NHTSA’s Official Announcement on October 9, 2025
The U.S. auto safety agency disclosed the investigation in a statement on October 9, 2025, citing “reports of vehicles using FSD driving through red traffic lights and driving against the proper direction of travel.” NHTSA emphasized evaluating FSD’s compliance with traffic laws.
Tesla’s Response and Stock Reaction (October 9, 2025)
Tesla acknowledged the probe in a regulatory filing on October 9, 2025, stating it cooperates fully while defending FSD’s safety record. Shares fell 3% intraday, extending a weekly decline amid broader EV market pressures.
Media and Analyst Coverage (October 9, 2025)
Reuters broke the story on October 9, 2025, linking it to prior FSD scrutiny. Analysts at Barclays noted potential recall risks, with X (formerly Twitter) buzzing under #TeslaProbe.
Tesla’s FSD Scrutiny and NHTSA Probes
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving beta, introduced in 2020, has faced repeated NHTSA investigations since 2016’s Autopilot probes, including a 2021 recall of 12 million vehicles for low beams. The 2023 Arizona crash involving FSD led to a software recall for 2 million cars, while a 2024 probe examined phantom braking. This 2025 red-light focus echoes the 2019 Ohio incident, amid 1,200+ Autopilot-related crashes reported to NHTSA. Historically, NHTSA’s actions have prompted Tesla updates, but critics argue delays in full autonomy claims persist.
Timeline of Key Tesla-NHTSA Probes
| Year | Event | Vehicles Affected |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | First Autopilot investigation | 1.1M |
| 2021 | Low-beam recall | 12M |
| 2023 | Arizona FSD crash probe | 2M |
| 2024 | Phantom braking review | 2M |
| October 2025 | Red-light FSD violations | 2.9M |
Impacts of the Probe on Tesla and the Industry
Immediate Financial and Reputational Hit
The probe could trigger a $1 billion recall, denting Q4 2025 deliveries and eroding FSD uptake, already at 20% of sales.
Regulatory and Safety Ramifications
Escalation might impose stricter labeling or bans on “Full Self-Driving” terminology, slowing Tesla’s robotaxi plans.
Broader EV and Autonomy Sector
It heightens scrutiny on competitors like GM’s Cruise, potentially delaying industry-wide approvals and investor confidence.
Consumer and Global Effects
U.S. buyers may hesitate on FSD, while international markets like China face similar probes.
Navigating the Probe and Autonomy Push
Investigation Timeline and Outcomes
NHTSA’s preliminary phase lasts 4-6 months; possible recall or software mandate by mid-2026.
Tesla’s Mitigation Strategies
Accelerated FSD v13 updates with improved signal recognition; emphasis on supervised use.
Industry-Wide Shifts
Push for unified standards, with Tesla leading in data-driven safety by 2027.
Potential Scenarios for 2026
- Optimistic: Quick resolution, FSD sales rebound.
- Moderate: Software recall, minor delays.
- Pessimistic: Hardware recall, stock hit.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What is the NHTSA probing in Tesla vehicles?
Full Self-Driving software for red-light violations and wrong-way driving in 2.9M vehicles.
Which models are affected?
2016-2025 Model S, 3, X, Y, and Cybertruck with FSD.
When was the probe announced?
October 9, 2025.
How many complaints triggered it?
Over 20 reports of FSD malfunctions.
What could happen next?
Engineering analysis or recall if risks confirmed.
How has Tesla responded?
Cooperating fully, defending FSD’s safety data.
Tesla’s FSD Under Fire: A Probe That Could Redefine Autonomy
The October 9, 2025, NHTSA probe into 2.9 million Teslas for red-light violations spotlights the perils of advanced driver tech, testing Tesla’s path to full autonomy.
Key Takeaways
- Scale: 2.9M FSD-equipped vehicles under scrutiny.
- Issues: Red lights, wrong-way driving.
- Market Hit: Potential $1B recall costs.
- Future Test: Probes shape self-driving regs.
